Donald Trump’s journey from New York real estate magnate to global political titan took a surprising turn in the 2020 presidential election, when he scored a major victory within a demographic historically considered a liberal stronghold. In this flipside, we see the Democrats’ strategies on reproductive rights falling short.
In the 2020 election, Trump performed impressively among LGBTQ+ voters, with the exit polls showing a significant increase in his support in comparison with the 2016 elections. This result can be seen as Trump’s big rainbow win, marking a unique phenomenon in American electoral dynamics. Against the stereotype of a conservative Republican shunned by the LGBTQ+ community, Trump managed to secure a considerable chunk of their votes, providing him a headwind in some of the 2020 battleground states.
The reasons aren’t abundantly clear, but it seems that many LGBTQ+ voters rewarded Trump for a relative lack of engagement in “culture wars” compared with other Republican presidents and nominees. They seem to have focused on his economic policy, public safety agendas, and the relative independence from the political establishment. More than ever, the LGBTQ+ voters demonstrated that there was more to their vote than the sociocultural issues that typically concern the liberal platform.
Donald Trump’s stance on LGBTQ+ rights — though not particularly vociferous — did not hinder his appeal among some LGBTQ+ voters, proving an improbable source of his support in the 2020 race for the presidency. This change in voting pattern highlights a partially unexplored political landscape where there is no automatic liberal monopoly on LGBTQ+ votes.
On the other hand, many political analysts had predicted that the Democrats’ focus on abortion rights would sway a large number of American voters. The Democrats had bet big on the belief that voters — particularly women — were deeply concerned by Trump’s appointment of conservative judges at all levels of federal courts and the implications this could have on the landmark Supreme Court decision, Roe vs. Wade.
However, these predictions didn’t hold water. The exit polls showed that the Democrats’ strategy seemed to have missed its target, failing to convince many voters who were apparently more concerned with the economic uncertainty wrought by a global pandemic rather than the potential threat to abortion access.
The election’s results indicated that the Democratic bet on abortion rights had failed to yield the desired result in siphoning off enough votes from Republicans or convincing undecided voters. Despite heated rhetoric on the campaign trail, the threat of an overturned Roe vs. Wade did not weigh heavily on the minds of a majority of voters who cast their ballots.
In the aftermath of the election, what’s becoming clearer is how the traditional voting bases are shifting. Trump’s unexpected success with the LGBTQ+ demographic and the Democrats’ miscalculated strategy around abortion rights demonstrate the growing complexities of political alliances in the United States. As we look forward to future elections, parties cannot take voters for granted anymore and will need to respond to diverse considerations. As for the 2020 election, it belongs to history, and like every historical event, it will continue to be dissected for lessons for years and decades to come.
